Opinionated comments on mobile phone industry news
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All entries are written by Anders Borg, CEO and Consultant of Abiro, that has a long experience in strategic planning, developing embedded and Java software, usability aspects, and the mobile phone industry in general. You can also read the latest Mobile News entries on your phone via wap.abiro.com, and we provide many News Feeds from popular news services. For advertising and contribution queries, please use the feedback form. News feed (local) FeedBurner Feed
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Friday, January 13, 2006
Outlook for 2006
MobHappy provided such an extensive outlook for 2006 that I felt I had to contribute my own humble thoughts about what might become established during 2006. It will be interesting to go back to this at the end of the year.
* Downloading of applications (primarily J2ME, BREW and Series 60) to support branded online services. This has aleady started, and competition will be fierce between Google, Yahoo, Microsoft, and others. Unfortunate for Microsoft they are far behind in the service area, they are not into Java, BREW or Series 60, and .NET (MS' counter-weapon) is nowhere to be seen. Such client applications are typically developed by relatively small companies, and I expect many of the better companies will be acquired by the big brands. Especially those that are into vertical applications rather than games.
* Continued consolidation of the market. During 2005 there were a lot of acquisitions of operators, service providers etc and that will increase even further, as the price and consumer war continues. At the same time there will be more MVNOs launched by companies that have strong brands in other product/service areas than telecom. E.g. there are rumours about Apple getting into the MVNO game. I'm speculating that Microsoft, Google and Yahoo might too, etc.
* More and more mobile content providers will take the subscription route, as Jamba has been so incredibly successful with that business model. This is also very likely to lead to regulations as they address small children with this scheme and there are still hidden costs that are not expressed.
* Operators will launch real flat-rate 3G subscriptions. Without it 3G services will never fly, yet currently the operator networks can't take the load. For instance video is ridiculous to stream through a standard-rate 3G network, and so is music downloads.
* More WiFi networks and ditto phones (and in part due to flat-rate 3G) will lead to increased use of mobile low-cost or no-cost VoIP.
* There will be an increased amount of Skype competitors. More will realize that there's nothing in the Skype service that can't be copied, and probably also be made better and easier to get the corporate IT blessing (e.g.: Microsoft). IMS is a possible competitor and endorsed by operators, but Skype and other "rogue" services will be quicker enhanced than IMS. IMS is like a slow dinosaur in comparison, relying on integrated phone software instead of downloaded ditto, and rigorously specified protocols.
* 3G will be increasingly pressured by WiFi long-distance networks, but not by much this year.
* Downloading of applications (primarily J2ME, BREW and Series 60) to support branded online services. This has aleady started, and competition will be fierce between Google, Yahoo, Microsoft, and others. Unfortunate for Microsoft they are far behind in the service area, they are not into Java, BREW or Series 60, and .NET (MS' counter-weapon) is nowhere to be seen. Such client applications are typically developed by relatively small companies, and I expect many of the better companies will be acquired by the big brands. Especially those that are into vertical applications rather than games.
* Continued consolidation of the market. During 2005 there were a lot of acquisitions of operators, service providers etc and that will increase even further, as the price and consumer war continues. At the same time there will be more MVNOs launched by companies that have strong brands in other product/service areas than telecom. E.g. there are rumours about Apple getting into the MVNO game. I'm speculating that Microsoft, Google and Yahoo might too, etc.
* More and more mobile content providers will take the subscription route, as Jamba has been so incredibly successful with that business model. This is also very likely to lead to regulations as they address small children with this scheme and there are still hidden costs that are not expressed.
* Operators will launch real flat-rate 3G subscriptions. Without it 3G services will never fly, yet currently the operator networks can't take the load. For instance video is ridiculous to stream through a standard-rate 3G network, and so is music downloads.
* More WiFi networks and ditto phones (and in part due to flat-rate 3G) will lead to increased use of mobile low-cost or no-cost VoIP.
* There will be an increased amount of Skype competitors. More will realize that there's nothing in the Skype service that can't be copied, and probably also be made better and easier to get the corporate IT blessing (e.g.: Microsoft). IMS is a possible competitor and endorsed by operators, but Skype and other "rogue" services will be quicker enhanced than IMS. IMS is like a slow dinosaur in comparison, relying on integrated phone software instead of downloaded ditto, and rigorously specified protocols.
* 3G will be increasingly pressured by WiFi long-distance networks, but not by much this year.
