Opinionated comments on mobile phone industry news
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Wednesday, January 31, 2007
Mobile entertainment, a $76B market by 2001?
Juniper Research estimates Mobile entertainment market to reach $76bn by 2011.
What is forgotten (as always) is that what makes multimedia through broadband so appealing is very high performance and very low cost, both in terms of content/service cost and flat rate on the connection. Then I of couse also include the illegal downloading of music and movies. That's part of the reason why people justify having broadband in the first place, however illegal it might be. Also note that news services nowadays provide news via video for free. I doubt it can be charged for, just because it's transferred over a wireless network.
3G with current "per megabyte" rates will simply kill this market. For the estimate to come true:
What is forgotten (as always) is that what makes multimedia through broadband so appealing is very high performance and very low cost, both in terms of content/service cost and flat rate on the connection. Then I of couse also include the illegal downloading of music and movies. That's part of the reason why people justify having broadband in the first place, however illegal it might be. Also note that news services nowadays provide news via video for free. I doubt it can be charged for, just because it's transferred over a wireless network.
3G with current "per megabyte" rates will simply kill this market. For the estimate to come true:
- cap-less flat rate data subscriptions will be required
- aggregate performance needs to be higher than today; note that very few are actively using 3G data now, but when more people do, performance will go down
- independent service providers must have free access to offer such services; this can't be a playing field for only operators
